NFL — GridIron 1.0

Points-denominated moneyline model (EPA + injuries + rest + weather) plus a Monte Carlo Drive Sim and Sharp Cut market-blended hybrid. Four prop engines: passing, rushing, receiving, anytime TD. Season runs September through February.

Framework progress

8 done · 5 pending · 3 waiting

50%

Framework built

GridIron 1.0 model
Edge-gated, points-denominated, FastBreak transplant
Drive Sim (v2)
Monte Carlo drive-by-drive; full margin + total distribution
Sharp Cut NFL
Market-blended hybrid; bet-or-pass; graded on ROI + CLV
Four prop engines
Passing yds/TDs · Rushing yds/att · Receiving yds/rec · Anytime TD
Dual-source adapter
nflverse + ESPN cross-verification
Backtest harness
Ready for 2024-25 closing-line dataset
Capture + settle routes
/api/nfl/capture-predictions + /api/nfl/settle-predictions wired

Configured

Supabase schema
Apply nfl_*.sql migrations
nflverse weekly pull
Run scripts/nfl/build_team_stats.py + build_player_rates.py
ODDS_API_KEY
Confirm plan covers americanfootball_nfl
TRACKING_CRON_SECRET
Required for cron auth
Seed impact ratings
QBs + skill positions for opening week

Running

First capture
Awaits September — capture cron fires daily, no-ops on empty slate
First injury report
Wed/Thu/Fri reports start late August (preseason camp)
First settled pick
Settle cron runs overnight after Sunday/Monday/Thursday slate
Backtest validated
4-season backtest complete (2021-2024, 1,139 games) — Sharp Cut profitable at +4.0% ROI from Week 8+

Today's slate

Offseason · regular season kickoff September 2026

Offseason

No NFL games on slate

The framework is wired. Capture cron will fire automatically once preseason schedules are published in August.

Player props

Player Props →

QB passing (yds/TDs), RB rushing (yds/att), WR/TE receiving (yds/rec), and one-sided anytime TD scorer.

Three moneyline brains

Models →

GridIron 1.0 (deterministic), Drive Sim (Monte Carlo), Sharp Cut (market-blended). Compare and gate.

Game-day grid

Tracking →

Per-game pick, predicted margin, gate, settled result. Pick a date, see the full slate.

Model performance

Analytics →

Win rate, ROI, CLV across all settled picks. Filter by week. Per-position prop calibration.